Evaluating Stocks: Fundamentals and Technical Analysis

Certainly, a "complete" course on security analysis is well beyond the scope of this text. There are many excellent books devoted to the subject of how to analyze the value of securities - both from a fundamental as well as a technical standpoint. The goal here is simply to provide a basic understanding of the methods and theories behind each type of stock analysis.

It should be pointed out early on that Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis of securities are two fairly radically different approaches to determining the correct [or fair] value of a company's stock. Let's start with a general overview of each method and then look into the specifics of each area. Again, for a more detailed examination of each type of analysis, we suggest you refer to our book list and / or the books specifically mentioned throughout this document.

The definitive work on Fundamental Analysis is broadly considered to be the classic book "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. This book, which was first published in 1934, is considered by most on Wall Street to be the 'Bible' of security analysis.
In fact, it was Benjamin Graham that Warren Buffett studied under when he first started in the stock market. Much of Berkshire Hathaway's success can likely be traced back to the information and ideas provided in the book Security Analysis and by the teachings of Benjamin Graham (although, it's widely acknowledged that Warren Buffett put his own spin on things over the years as well).

Fundamental Analysis is just as it sounds. It is based on examining the fundamental pieces of a business and its operation. There are no exotic formulas used. You do not need to be a mathematician. Anyone with a simple calculator and some basic information about a business should be able to employ Fundamental Analysis quite effectively.
The basic idea is if you put a dollar into the business (in the form of buying the stock) how much of a return can you expect. How much yield will you likely see and / or how much growth will you experience based on the operation, markets, competitors and costs of the business. Obviously, not all aspects of these fundamentals can be quantified. Such such as "good will" or changes in the economy or the consumer can be difficult to nearly impossible to calculate. However, to a large degree Fundamental Analysis throws these items out as concerns and simply looks at the cold hard facts which you do have available to you. Things such as costs of goods sold, margins, tangible assets, expenses, etc.

Armed with these basic and tangible numbers, one should rather easily be able to calculate the value and profitability of any business (given the numbers available and / or provided are accurate of course). Once a valuation is arrived at, the person performing the valuation can decide whether or not the market place (in this case the stock market) is applying what could be considered a fair market value to the stock. Certainly, when trying to make a profit on Wall Street, it is advisable to search out stocks which are (or at least appear are) being improperly or undervalued by the market. For the Fundamental Analyst, once an undervalued security is found, it's simply a matter of buying the stock and waiting for the market to realize the "more accurate" value of the security (assuming of course he / she is correct in their assumptions).
Find a cheap security, buy it and become rich. If only it was that simple. Or maybe it is? Just ask Mr. Buffett.

If the definitive work on Fundamental Analysis is provided by Graham and Dodd, then perhaps the definitive work on Technical Analysis is provided by Martin J. Pring in his book "Technical Analysis Explained". To quote this well regarded book on the definition of Technical Analysis:
"The technical approach to investing is essentially a reflection of the idea that prices move in trends which are determined by the changing attitudes of investors towards a variety of economic, monetary, political, and psychological forces. is an art - is to identify trend changes at an early stage and to maintain an investment post until the weight of the evidence indicates that the trend has reversed. "

Technical Analysis is nothing new. It has been used in one form or another for as long as stocks have been traded. In fact, the star character in one of my all favorite favorite books ("How I made $ 2,000,000 dollars in the stock market" by Nicholas Darvas) used mainly Technical Analysis principles in his investing - whether he knew it or not. However, "Charting" also commonly called "Chart Reading", which Technical Analysis is also referred to as, has become much more popular and broadly used inhaps only the last 20 to 30 years on Wall Street. This may be a large due in part to its more wide spread teaching and acceptance in colleges in more recent years.
If, based on my own experience and knowledge of this method of analyzing securities, I had to summarize all of the technical analysis down into one central idea, I would put it like this:

The corner stone of Technical Analysis is the concept that no single individual can ever hope to know as much about a security as the whole of Wall Street does at any given time. Because "Wall Street" is made up of everyone who is invested in - or may invest in - the stock market, their collective knowledge about any specific stock and / or the market is such that this mass of people and combined knowledge (ie Wall Street ) can valuate securities nearly instantaneously and far more accurately than any single individual.

As such, in the mind of the Technician, it follows that there must be no need to use something as "archaic" as Fundamental Analysis to value a stock, when everything known about the stock (and this includes the business fundamentals) is almost instantly reflected in the stock's price. In this situation, it would make much more sense to use the recent and historical trends and movements of the stock price to deduce not only the current fair market value of the stock, but where the price "may move" in the future. This future price movement is large extrapolated based on historical chart patterns and how the stock has recently expired in relation to support and resistance levels. Any Technical Analysis book worth its salt will quickly introduce you to chart patterns such as "double tops", "trend lines", etc. It is these patterns which are the core of Technical Analysis.

However, the question of whether or not these patterns on charts can always accurately predict future price movements of a stock is (and probably always will be) up for debate between Fundamental and Technical Analysts. If there is one fundamental (again no pun intended) flaw to Technical Analysis, it is that over the years Technical Analysis has been [incorrectly] extrapolated to mean that the market will "always perfectly" evaluate a security based on all information known by the markets. Unfortunately, that is not "always" the case.
This leads to mind a funny joke I once ran across in a book (I believe the book was by or about Warren Buffett) regarding how technical Analysis has been elevated to levels beyond its true capabilities:

A Technical Analyst and his friend were walking across the street. His friend noticed a $ 10 bill laying in the middle of the road and exclaimed, "Look, there is a $ 10 bill in the road". At which point the Technical Analyst said "If it were really a $ 10 bill, it would not be laying in the road".
This joke underscores the idea that Technical Analysis may not always evaluate the market without error. However, as long as you keep this point in mind, then Technical Analysis and chart reading can be a helpful tool in both investing and trading.

Finally, we should point out that the term "Quantitative Analysis" on Wall Street simply refers to someone (also sometimes referred to as a "Quant") who employs a mixture of both Fundamental and Technical Analysis in trying to properly evaluate stocks.

Good luck in the markets!

No permission is needed to reproduce an unedited copy of this article as long the About Author tag is left in tact and hot links included. Questions and comments can be sent to Ray at articles@daytraders.com .

Money Or Excuses - How You Doing?

What is difference between those who make money and those who do not. Its been stated by successful people with certainty and congruence, "People can make money or excuses but they can not make both."

This is the truth. All of us come to this world with choices in our financial life. We have the choice to keep moving forward with perseverance and responsibility for every step we take of the process, or just stop and let everything we did go undo or slow down. Well, I am sure you know what path to take for getting the results you want. Unfortunately, most people stop and never dig deep to their dreams.

Well, when people first strive to go for their dreams about making money, they quickly stop when the going gets tough, and they look for people who will agree with them, so they can stop - and they do. Unfortunately, they never reach the level they had in their dreams which was - work on the Internet from home. Think about it, making money or an excuse is a choice everyone has in life. Which legacy would be the best to leave your kids? We are leaving a legacy behind one way or another.

The Internet has open an awesome opportunity to most of the world. As far as financial means, we can earn money on the net. So I could not create an excuse good enough even if I wanted to. I had to put my head down and ignore the comments many people had for me, since I worked so hard and long without making money on the net.

Going back to that quote, I have found so much more truth on "money or excuses" statement. I mean is not that life? I have the tendency to get lazy and listen to the wrong people and I also feel like quitting. I realize the price successful people went through, and I make it a reminder in my own life, whenever I weakened to the common human level.

My question to you - How are you doing? Are you choosing the good life or are you settling for the common one? Have you ever notice that every time we encounter a difficult challenge, we look around for the wrong people, because we are not looking for strength or direction, but we are looking for sympathy. You need to ask this questions. You might find these questions a way to determine your journey.

Am I focusing on success or failure during my progress?

How am I thinking about my future as I follow my progress with the ups and downs?

Do I believe in the system that I am following or am I looking for a good excuse?

I have two ideas that can help you on your weak moments and stop you from derailing into excuses.

Focus on moving forward-lift your partners and update your goals and your system to reach them.

When you look back, just check your improvements and how else can you improve the past - all about improvement.

The people who succeed are the people who prevail, and make no excuses - because there is NONE !!!

Respectfully,

Efren Maldonado

Conquer Your Mind With Positive Thinking: Free Yourself From Depression, Worry, Anxiety, And Fear

Negative thoughts reduce energy in you and make you to lose focus The more you give in to your negative thoughts, the stronger they become. Likewise, a small positive thought can have the same effect blossoming into a beautiful outcome. Negative thoughts should be avoided at all cost. When we start to have negative thoughts, it's hard to stop them. And it's much easier said than done to shift your focus to positive thoughts. But it's the only way, especially if you want to avoid going down a path that is painful and unnecessary.

Please find below what I did that help me overcome my negative thoughts

I Exercise for at least 5 minutes early in the morning everyday

Any form of exercise is OK. It took my focus away from my thoughts and brought my attention to my breath. Exercise is very relaxing, which helped ease my mind. You could also practice Yoga. Yoga is one of the best exercises that get rid of negative thoughts in your mind.

I surround myself with positive people and I make friends with them.

When you are feeling depressed, or various negative thoughts just fill your heart, talk to people of integrity to help you. People have a huge impact on your life. "You are the average of the five people you spend the most time with," says American entrepreneur and motivational speaker Jim Rohn. With this in mind, you should think about the people you're spending time with the same way you think about what you eat and how you're exercising. Some people can be parasites. They suck out your happiness, energy and maybe some of your tangible resources as well. Some people will even help you to instinct negative thinking into your mind, so be very careful whom you associate yourself with. Who are good people by the way,

They are people that will inspire you to be a better person, provide you with motivation to achieve your goals, empower you to make the changes you need to succeed and cheer on your success.

In the workplace, good people tend to be productive people. They're organized, create schedules they stick to and don't get easily distracted from the end goal. And all this help you be more productive!

I Smile regularly

Smile regularly preferable every day. Smile prevents negative thoughts, improves your mood, helps reduce stress, and makes you more appropriate.

I change the tone of my thoughts from negative to positive.

For example, instead of thinking negative, I think positive. Always allow positive thinking to occupy your mind. Believe that God, our creator is always there for you, so why thinking negative. "We will face some challenges in our living situation, but we will come up with solutions that we will both be happy with."

I help people in need and in most cases solve their problems. Helping someone will help in removing negative thoughts from your mind, take the focus away from you and do something nice for another person. I decided to make a tray of food and donate it to the Salvation Army. It took my mind off of things and I felt better for helping someone else.

Remember that no one is perfect and let yourself move forward.

It's easy to dwell on your mistakes. I felt terrible that I acted this way and that I wasted our weekend. The only thing I can do now is learn from my mistakes and move forward. I definitely don't want to have a weekend like that again.

I sing especially gospel songs

I don't remember lyrics very well and it's probably the reason that I don't enjoy singing, but every time I do sing I always feel better. When we sing, we show our feelings and this provides an amazing stress relief.

I List five things that I am grateful for right now.

Being grateful helps appreciate what you already have. Here's my list: my children, health, a four-week trip to West African Countries, a new yoga class that I'll be teaching, and for my mom's speedy recovery from illness.

I Read positive quotes.

I like to place Post-It notes with positive quotes on my computer, fridge door, and mirror as reminders to stay positive. Also, I'd like to share with you a quote by an unknown author that was shared in a meditation class that I attended:

Watch your thoughts, they become words.

Watch your words, they become actions.

Watch your actions, they become habits.

Watch your habits, they become your character.

Watch your character, it becomes your destiny.

Prayer Points

O Lord, allow me to promote understanding and peace, and rid me of negative thoughts, in my mind in the name of Jesus Christ.

O Lord, let me understand that ignorance isn't bliss; allow me to be wise and steadfast

O Lord, help me see the good in life, and prevent me from thinking negative thoughts.

O Lord my Father, forgive me for my impure thoughts.

O Lord, turn me away from the darkest thoughts, that I may learn to view things in a different light.

You said to your apostles, "I give you peace, my peace I give you." Grant me peace, Lord Jesus.

O Lord, I pray to you, Lord, to let goodness reign in my heart and good thoughts in my mind.

O Lord, help me see my true calling. That I may discard the thoughts of taking my life because of all the failures I have done.

O Lord, may I learn to control my temper to avoid hurting others in what I may say or do that I could never take back.

With everything that happened in my life, I have become so bitter. I pray to learn to be free of this and live life with happiness in my heart.

I ask you, Heavenly Father, to put my thought processes in order so that faith, hope, and love will be in my main thoughts.

O Lord, help me, Lord, to think of and meditate on things that are pure, noble, true, and praiseworthy. Change my way of thinking, Father, as you mold my life into your ways.

Heal my thoughts, O Lord. Purify them, Lord Jesus.

Grant me peace of mind, so I may do your will, O God.

O Lord, free my mind of evil thoughts, and Cleanse me of negative and impure thoughts.

At times the Devil put negative thoughts into our mind.

Scripture: Isaiah 12:2 "God indeed is my savior; I am confident and unafraid. My strength and courage is the Lord, and he has been my savior"

At times, the devil apparently does put evil thoughts in our head, or even directly incites us to do evil. According to John 13:27, Judas made a secret arrangement to betray Jesus to His enemies. When Judas went to inform them where they could find Jesus, the Bible says that "Satan entered into him". Judas did not really believe John 12:6, the Bible let us know that Jesus was the Savior sent from God to save us from our sins. In fact, the Bible further says that Judas "was a thief; as keeper of the money bag (for the disciples), he used to help himself to what was put into it" The lesson is clear: The farther we are from God, the more vulnerable we will be to Satan's attacks.

Don't be like Judas, but make certain of your commitment to Jesus Christ. If you've never done so, turn to Him and by faith ask Him to come into your heart and life. Then ask Him to fill your mind with His truth and His Spirit every day. The Bible says in James 4:7 "Submit yourself, then, to God. Resist the devil, and he will flee from you"

Not all evil thoughts come directly from Satan, however. Often they come from within - from our own sinful hearts. When they do, ask God to cleanse your mind and fill it with Christ.

Prayer points

I decree and I declare that all negative thoughts from the Devil in my mind is removed right now by the power in the blood of Jesus Christ.

By the power in the blood or Jesus Christ, I bind and rebuke any demon that will try, have tried and succeeded to disturb our peace o mind by polluting mind our soul and body in the name of Jesus Christ.

I command you Evil and Misfortune to live me a lone so that I can get rid of any type of hardship caused by you, nature and circumstances which includes financial hardships, emotional battles, spiritual burdens, frustrations caused by you right now in Jesus name.

O Lord, my Father, I ask for healing, abundance of blessings and miracles to reinstate what I have lost, I regain confidence in God and His people and I live peacefully without the fear of people's evil thoughts, words, deeds and even bad spirits in the name of Jesus Christ.

I bind and rebuke any evil and misfortune that would try to come against my prayer for the goodness of my soul, sound finances, great health, and peaceful living in Jesus name.

I pray and command that anyone or any spirit who causes trouble will never come back to hurt me, to take anything from me, never come back to my life as thieves, blasphemer, and nature's wrath in the name of Jesus Christ.

O Lord my Father, help me to renew my life for your glory and salvation of my soul. Help me to forgive and forget all the evil done against me in Jesus Name.

O Lord, I claim and proclaim the richness of life here on earth as well as in heaven.

O Lord, I claim and proclaim, peace, contentment and true happiness from within.

O Lord, I claim and proclaim, freedom from fear the of the unknown.

O Lord, I claim and proclaim complete confidence and dependence on God. I will be triumphant in life without the evil works, thoughts and doings.

O Lord, I claim and proclaim that I will all live with the abundance of God's provisions and promises as wealthy children of God who inherited His choicest blessings and the salvation of souls.

O Lord, I claim and proclaim that I am accepting Jesus as my Lord and personal Savior and through baptism I became son/daughter of the Father.

I thank You, Heavenly Father for Your Love. I thank You, Holy Spirit for empowering me to be aggressive against Satan and evil spirits. I thank You, Jesus, for setting me free. I thank You, Mary, for interceding for us with the holy angels and the saints.

O Lord Jesus, fill me with charity, compassion, faith, gentleness, hope, security, humility, joy, kindness, light, love, mercy, modesty, patience, peace, purity, tranquility, trust, truth, understanding, and wisdom. Help me to walk in Your Light and Truth, illuminated by the Holy Spirit so that together I may praise, honor, and glorify Our Father in time and in eternity. For You, Lord Jesus, are, "... the way, the truth, and the life" (John 14:6 ), and You "... have come that I might have life and have it more abundantly" (John 10:10 ).

How can your brain stay positive? The following exercises will help.

Be thankful every time, show gratitude,

"Gratitude is the quality of being thankful; readiness to show appreciation for and to return kindness. When you wake up each morning, make it a habit to write down at least three things you're grateful for. It can be anything from family and work to a good night's rest or the morning sunrise - whatever is positive in your life deserves a little thank you note from your soul. If it's difficult to think of something right away, realize that something JUST happened that you can be grateful for... you woke up today. Not everyone gets that opportunity.

Balance your mind with many activities

You can find balance in many activities, such as yoga, meditation, deep breathing, walking in nature or any other activity that puts your mind at rest. When you the mind ceases, the soul is allowed to speak. The calming energy produced from a good centering exercise surrounds the body, bringing about an unshakable spirit that will surely help you stay positive.

How to Free Yourself from Anger

a strong feeling of annoyance, displeasure, or hostility. Anger is often nothing more than an intense emotion caused by an apparent injustice. The destructive outcomes of anger are well known. When even a slight annoyance arises, it is capable of growing quickly and overwhelming your state of mind.

Anger results in (1) a loss of perspective and judgment, (2) impulsive and irrational behavior that is destructive to both yourself and others, and (3) loss of face, compassion, and social credibility.

Anger is often pointless, as the following Buddhist parable will illustrate.

In the New Testament, Ephesians 4:26-27 advise, "In your anger do not sin. Do not let the sun go down while you are still angry, and do not give the devil a foothold."

Free yourself from anger

There is no benefit to anger at all. All anger can beget is negative energy, which can aggravate an already volatile situation. Anger can also impede sound judgement and inhibit your ability to consider the negative consequences of your abrupt reactions.

The next time you're angry, consider the following response:

Stop. Don't respond immediately. Walk away from the situation that has instigated your anger.

Breathe deeply. Become fully aware of your state of mind. Assess what's going on.

Calm down and compose yourself. Invoke mindfulness to appeal to your wisdom. Anger and other emotional arousals often stem from a lack of self-awareness or mindlessness, and can simmer down if you just wait long enough.

Consider the matter from other points of view. Ask if there could be other possible explanations for what happened.

Identify the reasons for your anger by asking three questions:

a. "Is this matter serious enough to get worked up about?"

b. "Is my anger necessary and warranted?"

c. "Will getting angry make a difference?"

Reflect about what response will be most effective. Try to develop a wise and measured course of action.

Idea for Impact: A low-anger life is a happier life

Patience is the definitive antidote to anger and aggression. With patience, you may not always be able to eliminate anger, but you can usually control it. Patience can build and fortify your intellectual and psychological resources.

As Proverbs 19:11 tells in the Hebrew Bible, "A person's wisdom yields patience; it is to one's glory to overlook an offense." Ultimately, developing greater patience enhances your romantic, personal, professional, and casual relationships-as well as that all-important relationship: the one you have with yourself.

How to free yourself from worry

Worry pollute your mind and it can never be positive, But in the last decade I have found several habits that have helped me to greatly decrease my worrying and to more easily handle such thoughts when they pop up.

1. Most of things you worry about have never happened.

I love this quote by Winston Churchill:

"When I look back on all these worries, I remember the story of the old man who said on his deathbed that he had had a lot of trouble in his life, most of which had never happened."

I have found it to be very true in my own life.

So when you feel worries starting to pop up ask yourself this:

How many of the things I feared would happen in my life did actually happen?

If you are anything like me then the answer will be: very few. And the very few ones that actually happened were mostly not as painful or terrible as I had expected.

Worries are most often just monsters you build in your own mind.

I find that asking myself this question regularly and reminding myself of how little of the worries that actually came to life makes easier and easier to stay calm and to stop a worried thought before it becomes a big snowball of negativity.

2. Avoid fears. Be bold, don't be afraid of anything. Believe in God at all times. When fears feel vague in your mind, when you lack clarity then it is very easy to get lost in exaggerated worries and disaster scenarios.

So find clarity in a worry-inducing situation by asking yourself:

Honestly and realistically, what is the worst that could happen?

When I have answered that question then I follow it up with spending a bit of time on figuring out what I can do about it if that pretty unlikely thing happens.

In my experience, the worst that could realistically happens is usually not as scary as what my mind could make up when it is running wild with vague fears.

Spending a few minutes on finding clarity in this way can save you whole lot of time, energy and suffering.

3. Don't try to guess what is on someone's mind.

Trying to read someone's mind usually doesn't work too well at all. Instead, it can very easily lead to creating an exaggerated and even disastrous scenario in your mind.Communicate and ask what you want to ask. By doing so you'll promote openness in your relationship and it will likely be happier as you avoid many unnecessary conflicts and negativity.

4. In a situation you cannot think straight, say stop, don't say anything

From time to time when I am hungry or when I am lying in bed and are about to go to sleep I can become mentally vulnerable. And so worries can more easily start buzzing around in my head.

5. Remember, people don't think about you and what you do as much as you may think. They have their hands full with thinking about what other people think of them. And with thinking about what is closest to their hearts like their children, pets, a partner or the job or school. So don't get lost in worries about what people may think or say if you do something. Don't let such thoughts hold you back in life.

6. Work out.

Few things work so well and consistently as working out to release inner tensions and to move out of a headspace that is extra vulnerable to worries. I also find that working out - especially with free weights - makes me feel more decisive and focused.

7. Share your worry with someone close to you. This is one of my favorites. Because it tends to work so well. By letting someone close to you know about your worry, it becomes a whole lot easier to see the situation or issue for what it really is.

Just venting for a few minutes can make a big difference and after a while you may start to wonder what you were so worried about in the first place.

If you do not have anyone to talk to at the moment about the worry bouncing around in your mind then let it out by writing about it. Just getting it out of your head and reasoning about with yourself either on paper or in a journal on your computer can help you to calm down and find clarity.

8. Spend more time in the present moment.

When you spend too much time reliving the past in your mind then it easy to start feeding your worries about the future. When you spend too much time in the future then is also easy to get swept away by disaster scenarios.So focus on spending more of your time and attention in the present moment.

9. Refocus on the small step you can take to move forward.

To move out the worried headspace I find it really, really helpful to just start moving and taking action to start solving or improving whatever I am concerned about.

Prayer Points

Father, I thank you so much for delivering me from the activities of the kingdom of darkness

Because, Jesus Christ has set me from the law of sin and death I commit to live free from worry in the name of Jesus,

I humble myself under your mighty hand that in due time you may exalt me.

I cast away from myself, my husband, my wife and children, - all my anxieties, all my worries, all my concerns - once and for all in the name of Jesus Christ.

O Lord, take wrong thoughts captive, because you care for me affectionately and care about me watchfully. You sustain me. You will never allow the consistently righteous to be moved - made to slip, fall, or fail!

O Lord, I cast down imaginations (reasoning's) and every high thing that exalts itself against the knowledge of you, and I bring into captivity every thought to the obedience of Christ.

O Lord, I lay aside every weight and the sin of worry. I run with patience the race that is set before me, looking unto Jesus, the Author and Finisher of my faith.

O Lord, help me fix my mind on those things that are true. I thank You Father, that You are able to keep that which I have committed unto You. I thank you for fixing my mind on those things that are true, honest, just, pure, lovely, or good report, virtuous, and deserving of praise. I will not let my heart be troubled.

I abide in Your Word, and Your Word abides in me. Therefore, Father, I do not forget what manner of person I am. I look into the perfect law of liberty and continue therein, being not a forgetful hearer, but a doer of the Word and, thus, blessed in my doing!